Money-Jiu Jitsu (Part 2): Strategies To Win The Pan Ams, The Worlds, and more…
We are continuing our breakdown of the 2012 Pan Am’s with an examination of how to systematically win a match. Knowledge is power, and previously we discussed the supreme importance of scoring points. More specifically, we discussed the importance of scoring first. We established that being the first to score gives that player a +80% chance of winning the match, and also a 56% greater chance of winning by submission.
So we know its important to score first, but what’s the best way to do it, in fact whats the best way to score in general? What positions lend themselves to success and failure. The answers are both clear and deceiving.
In over 50 matches someone pulled guard in 70% of them. In 8% of matches both players pulled guard, and 22% of the time one player scored a take-down. This is a pretty obvious observation. Anyone who attended the 2012 Pans was able to see the prevalence of guard pulling as a strategy. What is less easy to notice is the result.
In the matches where one player pulled guard, the person who pulled guard scored first 72% of the time. This paints a pretty positive picture given what we know about the odds for the first person to score. Unfortunately for the guard-puller in matches where only one player pulled guard scoring first wasn’t always enough, although they still come out as the favorite, winning nearly 57% of the time.
This information alone, at face value, would tell you that competitors should always pull-guard because the odds are more strongly tilted in their favor, but hold-up. People that pulled guard, and had their guard passed lost 90% of their matches. So while pulling guard tilts the odds in your favor it’s also extremely risky . If you pull guard and have your guard passed this info shows that it is all but a certainty that you will lose the match. So here-in lies the reflective side of jiu jitsu. Also, even though many submissions came from the guard position it was rarity that the guard puller scored a submission before other action occurred. This could be for many reasons (opponent is fresh, opponent is more aware, oppononet is a stong passer, etc.), but one thing is for sure, pulling guard offers an advantage, but also a significant risk.
So which position is the best place to finish? The player on top at the end of the match wins 64% of the time, and 77% of submissions came from the top or the back. When you adjust for the number of times someone took the back from a bottom position you still come up with over 60% of matches being won by submission by a player who initiated their attacks from a top position.
So what does this all mean so far? It means that there are striking patterns that determine success and failure.
- Scoring first will win you 80% of your matches
- Pulling guard offers better odds of scoring first and winning
- Passing the guard of the guy who pulls guard gives you a 90% chance of winning (the greatest of all)
- The guy who finishes the match on top wins 64% of the time, and has greater odds of securing a submission
- If you win by submission there is approximately a 1-5 chance that it happened from the guard, and a 4-5 chance it happened on the back or from top position
There is still so much more that I have collected, so stay tuned. Next week we will explore techniques and submissions. I’ll let you know which ones are the most effective and which ones may be wasting your time.
Again, please share on social media. All your support is greatly appreciated.
Sincerely,
Bishop Familia Jiu Jitsu
P.S. Congratulations Nick Schrock,Abu Dhabi World Pro Blue Belt Absolute Champion. We knew you were the best, and you proved it. Way to go buddy.