World Jiu Jitsu Case Study (1.2)

Section 1.2

In section 1.1 we revealed that matches were won in 1 of 4 possible ways. Wins by submission and by points both accounted for approximately 96% of the total pie, with referee decisions and disqualifications accounting for the smaller 4%. But how are competitors winning these matches? There are several trends that we will discuss in this section to help paint an accurate picture of how matches were won during this year’s Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu World Championship.

Let’s start with how the matches began. In 58% of the matches observed, the competitors reached the ground in less than 10 seconds. This number changes a bit when we break it down by weight class. For example, 80% of roosterweight matches reach the ground in less than 10 seconds, and only 20% of heavyweight matches reach the ground in less than 10 seconds. We recognized a trend in weight classes and how quickly the game reached the ground. As you will see next, this likely has a connection to the prevalence of guard pulls in the lower weight classes as well.

So if that breaks down how the contest reached the ground, let’s now examine how it got there. In 66% of all the matches observed one competitor pulled guard, in 24% one competitor was taken down, and in 10% both competitors pulled guard. Again we see a trend in how these statistics change by weight class. In the lowest three weight classes, one competitor pulled guard in 79% of the matches, with both pulling guard in approximately 17% of matches. This means in the lowest three weightclasses the match reached the ground via guard pull in over 96% of the matches. In the heaviest 3 weight classes guard pulling by one competitor drops to 27%, with no matches starting with both competitors pulling guard. It’s easy to see the trends in this scenario. In the heavier weight classes guard pulling is far less frequent, while at the lowest weight classes it is a near certainty at 96%.

Now that we know how the matches started, we have to ask the question, how did they finish? In 49% of matches observed the person who pulled guard won, in 40% of the matches the person who started the match on top won the match, and in matches where both players pulled guard 6% of total matches were won by the player who came to the top first, and 5% were won by the person who stayed on the bottom. This data is consistent with our limited study of the 2012 Pan Ams in which the small-majority of matches observed were one by one player pulling guard. These numbers don’t necessarily tell us that an advantage is to be had by the person pulling guard, but it may be able to tell us a lot about strategies and the rules as we expand this further in some of other sections, so stay tuned.

Move On To Section 2.1

There is a lot more to come including the role that points plays in winning the match, and how many you need to almost completely assure victory. We also have some great stats on submissions, advantages, and everyone’s favorite—techniques.

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